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Tasmanian Election 1998
Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group
10 November 1998
Background
The 1998 Tasmanian election made a significant alteration to the political
landscape. The first majority Labor government since 1979 was returned,
the Liberals received their lowest vote since 1972, and the Tasmanian
Greens leader was defeated as three of the four Green MPs were removed
from the greatly-reduced House of Assembly.(1)
Minority government
Tasmania has had many minority governments-in recent years both Labor
(1989-92) and Liberal (1996-98) have governed with Green support, a position
that both major parties resented. In late July the major parties combined
against the Greens to support legislation to reduce the House of Assembly
to 25 (from 35). The quota for election was thus increased from 12.5 per
cent to 16.7 per cent, a vote that the Greens were likely to have trouble
in achieving, but a change that would also ensure the defeat of some major
party sitting members. A sign of Premier Rundle's reluctance to continue
governing while dependent upon Green support was the fact that he called
an election as early as 29 August. Theoretically, it could have been delayed
until May 2000. Some observers wondered if the Premier's early announcement
was designed to keep the not-yet-registered Pauline Hanson's One Nation
Party (PHONP) off the ballot paper.
The state of the parties
The parties were in different electoral shape. The Government was said
to be well behind in the polls, in May there had been rumours of a Liberal
leadership spill, and three ministers decided not to re-contest their
seats. There were also rumours of party pressure forcing the Premier to
go early. By contrast, Labor seemed much healthier than at any time since
its 1979 victory. Its vote had been creeping up during the 1990s, there
had been an amicable leadership change from Michael Field to Jim Bacon,
and with an opinion poll margin of about 8 per cent, the party looked
to have an excellent chance of victory. The Greens, under Christine Milne,
with a poll support base of 10 per cent, were likely to struggle to hold
their seats.
The Tasmanian economy
Tasmania's place in the national economy has always been marginal, due
to many long-term weaknesses. The Nixon Inquiry into the Tasmanian Economy
(1997)(2) noted the State's projected population decline, poor jobs growth,
declining level of services, massive and increasing State debt, a weakening
export performance, a drain of skilled workers and a running down of capital
stock. The report concluded that 'Tasmania has failed to develop an economy
which can compete effectively internationally'. This was the backdrop
to the central issue in the campaign.
Selling the 'Hydro'
The Hydro Electric Corporation has been central to the Tasmanian economy
for nearly 70 years. Apart from being one of Tasmania's largest employers,
its development of hydro-electricity has been seen by successive governments
as crucial to the future prosperity of the State. It has long occupied
a special place in the Tasmanian polity. To an important degree, the 1998
election was a referendum on the future of the Hydro, rather than on the
governmental abilities of the two main contenders.
During the Franklin Dam controversy in the early 1980s the Liberal Party
had been a keen supporter of the Hydro, but the Liberal Premier now announced
a plan to lease its generation assets and sell the distribution and retail
divisions. Rundle claimed this would clear the State's $3.2b debt and
provide a recurrent injection of $200m per year to the annual budget.
It would leave a credit balance of $500m, as well as injecting $150m for
schools and other social needs. The Premier also promised to reduce payroll
and land taxes and to abolish the compulsory Hydro small business levy.
Only in this way, he insisted, could Tasmania hope to compete with the
other States in the Australian federation.
The Greens favoured a full leasing arrangement of the Hydro, but Labor
opposed the sale or the lease of this Tasmanian icon, running on the emotional
slogan that 'Only Labor will save the Hydro'. The Opposition leader warned
that if the Rundle Government was returned, the Hydro and its profits
'would leave Tasmanian hands forever'. Labor even encouraged the brief
return to the political limelight of former Premier and Hydro champion,
'Electric Eric' Reece, who spoke of the great loss to the Tasmanian community
if Rundle's proposal went ahead. Labor's counter-proposal would require
the Hydro businesses to increase dividends to the State from 50 per cent
to 70 per cent, giving the government an added $435m over the ten years.
Labor also promised legislation to require a two-thirds majority of parliament,
and a referendum, to authorise the sale or lease of any Hydro division.
The campaign
In announcing the election so early and at a time when his party was
trailing badly in the polls, the Premier had rejected normal practice
of calling elections when a government's stocks are at their highest.
Throughout the twenty-six days of campaigning opinion polls suggested
that the Liberals failed to make any inroads into Labor's comfortable
lead of approximately 6-8 per cent. Labor may have been helped by the
Liberals' plans for the Hydro. One poll suggested that one voter in five
saw the issue as likely to influence their vote, while another reported
a two-thirds majority opposed to the sale of the Hydro and 59 per cent
rejecting the Greens' leasing policy.(3)
Federal factors seem not to have had an impact, despite some ALP efforts
to widen the economic debate to include discussion of a GST. Prime Minister
Howard had promised to reduce Tasmanian debt by $150m if the Hydro sale
legislation passed by the end of 1998, an offer topped by Leader of the
Opposition Beazley who made a similar debt-reduction promise free of any
link to the Hydro sale. There is no evidence that these mainland intrusions
affected any votes.
The Government switched tack mid-campaign to make personal attacks upon
the Labor leader. Bacon had been active in the Builders Labourers Federation
before coming to Tasmania, and had later been secretary of the Tasmanian
Trades and Labor Council. Bacon and his deputy, Paul Lennon, another former
TTLC secretary, were described in advertisements as 'union thugs', and
attention was drawn to Bacon's former association with Norm Gallagher
of the BLF. Bacon dismissed the advertisements as a 'history lesson' which
actually drew attention to the fact that he had spent most of his working
life 'representing other people'. One newspaper wondered if the attacks
might rebound on the Liberals due to the respect that many in business
had for Bacon's TTLC work.
Elsewhere in the campaign Milne and the Greens attacked major party 'abuse'
of democratic forms in their alliance to reduce parliamentary numbers.
For their part Rundle and Bacon both claimed they would resign as leader
rather than lead a minority government after the election.
The result
Labor won fourteen of the twenty-five seats, though its vote of 44.8
per cent was its lowest to return a parliamentary majority since 1925.
The Liberal vote fell 3.1 per cent to 38.1 per cent, leaving the party
with just two members per five-member division. The changes to the size
of Parliament had been the undoing of the Tasmanian Greens. Their vote
was 10.2 per cent, barely down on 1996, but nowhere near their peak vote
of 17.1 per cent in 1989. The only Green survivor was Peg Putt who retained
her seat in the Green-friendly division of Denison; her leader, Christine
Milne, was defeated in Lyons. Tasmania First, a party sharing many of
the views of PHONP, stood candidates for the first time, but failed to
win a seat. It managed 5.1 per cent of the vote, though in the rural division
of Lyons its vote was 9.9 per cent. Of 31 sitting members who contested
the election, nine were unsuccessful, including the Parliamentary Secretary
for Small Business, Tony Benneworth, the Government Whip, Bob Mainwaring,
and former Fraser Government minister, Michael Hodgman. Former Australian
Democrat Senator, Robert Bell (1990-6), gained less than 2 per cent in
Franklin.
Tasmanian election 1998-first preference votes
(%) and seats
|
|
ALP
|
LIB
|
TG
|
TF
|
Other
|
|
|
44.8 (+4.3)
|
38.1 (-3.1)
|
10.2 (-0.9)
|
5.1 (na)
|
1.9 (-5.3)
|
|
Bass
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Braddon
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Denison
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
|
Franklin
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Lyons
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total seats
|
14
|
10
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
|
Seats held 1996-8
|
14
|
16
|
4
|
na
|
1
|
Endnotes
- S. Bennett, 'The Reduction in the size of the Tasmanian Parliament',
Research Note No. 2, Department of the Parliamentary Library,
1998.
- The Nixon Report. Tasmania into the 21st Century, Government Printer,
Hobart: 1997, pp. v-vii.
- Mercury, 8 August 1998, Examiner, 22 August 1998.
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