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Queensland Election 1998
Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
29 June 1998
Introduction
The 1998 Queensland election represents a watershed in Australian politics.
For the first time since the 1950s a new political party has won a significant
number of seats in a lower house of Parliament under a single member system.
Not since the establishment of the Democratic Labor Party in the 1950s
has a new party achieved the level of success as the One Nation Party
achieved at this election.
The 1998 elections have left Queensland with a hung parliament and the
fate of the government in the hands of the two independent members. The
Australian Labor Party won 44 seats to be the largest party in the Assembly,
while the Coalition won 32 seats (National Party 23 seats, Liberal Party
9 seats). Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party made a dramatic entry into
Australian politics winning 11 seats. Two seats were won by independents
(Ms L. Cunningham in Gladstone and Mr P. Wellington in the Sunshine Coast
seat of Nicklin).
The Result
The three established major political parties all suffered a decline
in support with the rise of One Nation. The Coalition partners were the
biggest losers with the National Party's support falling by 11.1% to 15.2%,
their lowest first preference vote since the Second World War. The Liberal
Party vote fell by 6.6% to 16.1%. The Australian Labor Party was best
able to withstand the One Nation onslaught and suffered only a 4.0% fall
in support.
Across the state the One Nation Party received 22.7% of the first preference
vote. Support for One Nation could have been even higher if they stood
candidates in all 89 seats instead of the 79 contested. In three seats
One Nation received over 40% of the vote (Barambah 43.5%, Maryborough
42.6%, Tablelands 42.1%).
Despite losing six seats to One Nation, the ALP was able to maintain
its representation in the Assembly by winning an equal number of seats
from the Liberal Party. One Nation's other five seats were won from the
National Party. The Liberal Party lost six seats, all to the Labor Party,
while the National Party lost five seats to One Nation and one seat to
the new independent member.
Regions
Support for the four major parties varied significantly across the regions
of Queensland.
In Brisbane, the Labor Party performed strongly and suffered only a small
decline in support. The ALP now holds all but 7 of the 40 seats in Brisbane.
By way of contrast the Liberal vote in Brisbane fell by 11.6% to 25.8%,
leaving the party with only four seats in the capital. Support for One
Nation was highest in the outer-metropolitan seats (e.g. Caboolture, Bundamba,
Logan and Woodridge) where the party replaced the Coalition as the major
opposition to the ALP.
In the traditional Coalition areas of the Gold Coast and the Sunshine
Coast, the One Nation Party out-polled the Coalition parties as a whole
but failed to win any seats. The Coalition parties did not challenge each
other in their own seats and as a result easily out-polled One Nation
in all but one seat.
In regional and rural Queensland, One Nation received 29.8% of the vote
and won nine seats. The success of One Nation was largely at the expense
of the National Party, whose vote fell by 23.1% to 27.0%. Although the
Labor Party won two seats from the Liberal Party (including Mundingburra)
its presence in regional and rural areas continued to decline with the
loss of four seats to One Nation. The election left the Liberal Party
with no representation from regional and rural Queensland.
Preferences
The question of preferences, namely the decision of the Coalition to
direct preferences to One Nation ahead of the ALP and the decision of
One Nation to direct preferences to the Coalition ahead of the ALP in
a number of marginal seats, dominated the Queensland election campaign.
Unfortunately, a detailed analysis of the effect of preferences on the
outcome of the election will not be possible until the Queensland Electoral
Commission publishes its report on the election. However, the following
observations can be made regarding the effect of preferences on the outcome.
It would appear that up to eight One Nation seats were won on Coalition
preferences (Burdekin, Caboolture, Hervey Bay, Ipswich West, Maryborough,
Mulgrave, Thuringowa and Whitsunday).
Similarly up to nine Coalition seats were won on ALP preferences (Burnett,
Callide, Crows Nest, Cunningham, Gympie, Hinchinbrook, Maroochydore, Warwick
and Western Downs).
The effect of One Nation preferences in denying the ALP victory in marginal
Coalition seats was not as pronounced. In Coalition seats requiring a
swing of less than 7%, the ALP won four (Greenslopes, Barron River, Mt
Ommaney and Mansfield) while four were retained by the Coalition (Albert,
Redlands, Southport and Aspley).
Anecdotal evidence suggests that the decision of the Liberal Party to
direct preferences to One Nation ahead of the ALP cost the party votes
and seats in Brisbane. Although specific data to support or refute this
claim is not available, circumstantial evidence suggests that there was
some shift in support from the Liberal Party to the ALP in Brisbane. The
Liberal vote in Brisbane fell by 11.6% while ALP vote only fell by 2.5%.
If we assume that some of the One Nation vote of 16.7% came from former
ALP voters then some Liberal voters must have voted for the ALP to account
for the small fall in ALP support.
The decision of the Coalition (and especially the Liberal Party) to direct
preferences to One Nation ahead of the ALP resulted in a number of One
Nation candidates being elected at the expense of the ALP. However, available
evidence suggests that this decision cost the Liberal Party votes and
seats in Brisbane and while obviously preventing an ALP majority did not
prevent a minority ALP government.
On 25 June, the independent member for Nicklin announced that he would
support the ALP in forming a minority government.
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