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North Korea and the defection of Hwang Jang-yop: Issues and implications
Frank Frost
Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Group
The defection of senior North Korean official Hwang Jang-yop on 12 February
in Beijing has highlighted the economic crisis in the North, the potential
for further instability, and the problems this could pose for security
in East Asia. Hwang, a senior figure in the ruling Korean Workers Party
(KWP), was a key figure in the development of the Party's juche
(self-reliance) ideology, employed to justify North Korea's isolationist
and militant domestic and foreign policies. Hwang may have defected for
personal as well as political reasons. However his defection has added
to concerns about the stability of the North Korean leadership and about
the regime's viability and future.
North Korea reacted angrily to the defection and a tense stand-off with
China and South Korea ensued during which there were fears that its agents
might attempt to assassinate Hwang. With Hwang's departure for South Korea
via the Philippines on 18 March these tensions have eased. However North
Korea's economic and political problems are of serious concern both to
the South and to the Asia Pacific region - including Australia, for whom
South Korea is our fourth largest trade partner, and our second largest
export market.
International isolation and economic crisis
North Korea is the world's last unreformed Communist regime. The end
of the Cold War has left North Korea largely isolated. Both China and
Russia have normalised relations with the prosperous and dynamic South
and curtailed economic relations with the North. This has exposed the
weakness and vulnerability of the North's economy. Oil imports, for example,
which used to be supplied at 'friendship prices', have declined from 2.65
million tons in 1989 to 1.1 million tons in 1995.
Isolation, coupled with several years of disastrous flooding, has produced
an economic crisis. Petroleum shortages have crippled transport and industry.
Famine conditions now prevail. According to South Korean estimates, the
1996 harvest produced 3.69m tons of grain, far less than the 6.7m tons
needed to meet normal demands. The head of the UN Development Program
in Beijing visited the North in February and has reported that malnutrition
is widespread, with rickets and scurvy common among children.
North Korean has appealed for assistance and is attempting to barter
exports and investment concessions for fuel and food. The UNDP is providing
some aid to restore flood-damaged lands. The World Food Program has appealed
for food aid and several countries have responded: in February, the US
pledged $US10 m, South Korea $US6m and Australia $A2.5m. However, existing
food supplies are thought likely to run out entirely within two months,
with the next harvest not due until after July. Without massive international
assistance, North Korea will face widespread famine.
Political uncertainty
Hwang Jang-yop's defection also highlighted the uncertain political
situation in the North. The North's 'dear leader', Kim Jong-il, has still
not assumed the offices of President and KWP Secretary - vacant since
the death of his father Kim Il-sung in July 1994 - although this may occur
later this year. Hwang's departure has been followed by some leadership
changes - the Prime Minister (one of the few leaders identified with economic
reform) retired and the Defence Minister died. Leadership changes appear
to have favoured the military at the expense of technocrats. This trend
is not likely to help prospects either for economic reform or for cooperative
relations with the South.
North-South tensions
North-South relations were strained again by the incursion by a North
Korean submarine in September, which was followed by the deaths by suicide
and armed clashes of 24 of the crew. Tensions have eased somewhat since
the North apologised for the incident on 29 December. Nonetheless the
condition of Cold War confrontation continues, with each Korean state
refusing to recognise the legitimacy of the other. Economic contacts between
the two states, which could greatly benefit the North, remain minimal.
Dialogue and negotiations
There have been two recent encouraging developments towards dialogue
involving North Korea. In October 1994, the US sponsored an agreement
to reduce the dangers posed by North Korea's nuclear industry, which it
was feared was heading towards nuclear weapons production. The agreement
established the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organisation (KEDO)
which will replace the North's plutonium-producing reactors with new,
safer reactors to be built by a consortium dominated by South Korean contractors.
The agreements also involves the supply of fuel oil to the North. The
agreement has eased regional concerns about North Korea's nuclear program
and has involved useful contacts between the North and South in the construction
of the new reactors.
In another positive development, the North participated in talks in
New York on 5 March 1997 with South Korean and US officials. The talks
aimed at securing North Korean agreement to take part in four-way discussions
with the South, the US and China - first proposed by Presidents Clinton
and Kim Young-sam of South Korea in April 1996 - which would seek a decisive
end to the state of hostilities suspended but not fully ended by the Armistice
in 1953. It is hoped that the US may be able to encourage progress on
the Korean peninsula by pursuing two tracks: encouraging reconciliation
between the two Koreas, and using the inducement of food aid and the normalisation
of diplomatic relations to help maintain cooperation from North Korea.
However, the 5 March talks, while promising, are only a first step towards
real dialogue, and the North's willingness to negotiate seriously with
the South has yet to be demonstrated.
Australia's interests
Australia welcomed the proposal for four party talks and sees this as
an important step towards reducing tension on the peninsula. Australia
has made two contributions to KEDO (totalling $A8.8m), and is the fourth
largest donor after South Korea, Japan and the US. Australia has also
supported calls for food aid to North Korea: a contribution of $A2.5m
in February 1997 brought the total provided so far to $3.6m.
Outlook
In December 1996, the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency, John
Deutch, argued that in the next three years North Korea faces three possible
scenarios: implode, make war, or make peace. An attack by the North seems
unlikely given its shortage of fuel and resources and the continuing presence
of 37,000 US forces in the South, which would guarantee a massive US response.
An economic and social crisis or implosion is possible and would impose
very severe burdens on South Korea's economy and political system.
Further negotiations and dialogue could increase access by the North
to aid and help ease North-South strains. This however would require a
willingness by the North to be more flexible about economic reform and
the pursuit of peace. Without a more positive approach, the combination
of economic crisis and political intransigence in North Korea will continue
to pose security dangers both to South Korea and to the Asia Pacific region.
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