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|
State/Territory |
Population |
Quotas(a) |
Entitlement |
Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New South Wales |
6 190 248 |
50.0748 |
50 |
.. |
|
Victoria |
4 541 016 |
36.7336 |
37 |
.. |
|
Queensland |
3 354 753 |
27.1376 |
27 |
+1 |
|
Western Australia |
1 762 735 |
14.2593 |
14 |
.. |
|
South Australia |
1 479 156 |
11.9653 |
12 |
.. |
|
Tasmania (b) |
473 384 |
3.8293 |
5 |
.. |
|
Six States |
17 801 292 |
|||
|
Northern Territory |
179 742 |
1.4540 |
1 |
.. |
|
Australian Capital Territory |
308 393 |
2.4947 |
2 |
-1 |
| (a) Population of state
or territory divided by quota (Quota: 17801292 / 144 = 123620.08).
(b) Tasmania is guaranteed a minimum of five members under section 24 of the Constitution. |
||||
|
Source: Australian Electoral Commission, Electoral Newsfile, No. 62. |
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The 1997 determination resulted in an increase in the entitlement of Queensland from 26 to 27 and a decrease in the entitlement of the ACT from 3 to 2. The total number of members of the House of Representatives remained unchanged at 148. As a consequence redistributions commenced in Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory with the appointment of Redistribution Committees in April 1997.
The procedures for conducting electoral redistributions are contained in Parts III and IV of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. The process is best summarised by the redistribution timetable. The redistribution process provides opportunities for interested parties to make submissions to the Committee, to make comments on other submissions and to make objections to the Committee's proposals. The timetable relating to the 1997 redistribution in Western Australia, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory is given in the table below.
Redistribution Timetable
|
Western Australia |
Queensland |
Australian Capital Territory |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Redistribution triggered |
22-Apr-96 |
28-Feb-97 |
28-Feb-97 |
|
Redistribution Committee appointed |
15-May-96 |
3-Apr-97 |
7-Apr-97 |
|
Public suggestions and comments invited |
29-May-96 |
16-Apr-97 |
16-Apr-97 |
|
Suggestions closed |
28-Jun-96 |
16-May-97 |
16-May-97 |
|
Comments on suggestions closed |
12-Jul-96 |
30-May-97 |
30-May-97 |
|
Quota struck |
12-Jul-96 |
30-May-97 |
30-May-97 |
|
Redistribution Committee publishes proposals and invites objections |
28-Aug-96 |
28-Jul-97 |
28-Jul-97 |
|
Objections closed |
26-Sep-96 |
25-Aug-97 |
25-Aug-97 |
|
Augmented Electoral Commission conducts hearings into objections |
7-Oct-96 |
11-Sep-97 |
(a) |
|
Redistribution determined |
6-Mar-97 |
(b) |
(b) |
|
(a) No hearings conducted. (b) The Augmented Electoral Commission for Queensland announced its findings on 26 September 1997 while the Augmented Electoral Commission for the Australian Capital Territory announced its findings on 29 September 1997. The formal determination for both redistributions will occur after the declaration of the poll for the Constitutional Convention in early December 1997. |
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In making its proposals the Redistribution Committee is required to take into account the following considerations outlined in section 66 of the Act:
Section 66 also specifies the quota of electors for the State or Territory shall be the basis of the redistribution but that a margin of allowance of not more than 10 per cent above or below the quota be allowed.
The strict numerical criteria specified in section 66 of the Act mean that redistributions carried out under this legislation are first and foremost mathematical exercises and often preclude due consideration of the other qualitative criteria. The restrictive nature of the quantitative criteria is often the subject of comment in submissions(1) and has been the subject of a recommendation of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. The Committee in considering the redistribution criteria found that 'the political parties and others attempting to frame electoral boundaries essentially find themselves engaged in a mathematical exercise'(2). To overcome this difficulty the Committee recommended relaxing the variation allowable three and a half years after the redistribution from 2 per cent to 3.5 per cent(3). The Committee's recommendation has yet to be acted upon by the Government.
It is important to note that in making proposals the Redistribution Committees do not take into account any political considerations.
The redistribution of federal electoral boundaries in Western Australia was triggered by the seven year rule contained in paragraph 59(2)(c) of the Act. Under this provision a redistribution must commence within 30 days after the expiration of seven years after a state was last redistributed. In the case of Western Australia the state was last redistributed on 31 March 1989. The Electoral Commissioner announced the redistribution on 22 April 1996.
The Redistribution Committee received suggestions and comments from the three major parties and from a number of Federal Members and local councils. The main focus of the submissions and comments was the high growth rate Divisions of Moore and Cowan to the north of Perth and the Division of Brand in the south.
The Redistribution Committee specified two main factors as influencing its deliberations. These were 'continuing very high rates of growth in some areas, most notably in the LGAs of Wanneroo and Rockingham' and 'unevenness of growth within the State and in particular between inner metropolitan Divisions and those on the perimeter of the metropolitan area'. The Committee was also mindful to retain existing boundaries wherever possible, to tidy up boundaries which have caused confusion and to limit the increase in area of the Division of Kalgoorlie(4).
Objections or endorsements of the Committee's proposals were received from 25 persons or authorities; however, the Augmented Electoral Commission rejected all but one objection. The one objection upheld related to a relatively minor change in the boundary between the Divisions of Perth and Pearce. A summary of the new Divisions is provided in the table below.
Western Australian Electoral Divisions - 1997 Redistribution
|
Division |
Electors Jul 1996 |
Variation from quota Jul 1996 % |
Projected enrolment Jun 2000 |
Variation from average Jun 2000 % |
Area sq km |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brand |
71 403 |
-9.52 |
84 510 |
-0.27 |
442 |
||||
|
Canning |
77 281 |
-2.08 |
84 580 |
-0.18 |
2 999 |
||||
|
Cowan |
72 508 |
-8.12 |
84 301 |
-0.51 |
164 |
||||
|
Curtin |
85 363 |
+8.16 |
85 812 |
+1.27 |
93 |
||||
|
Forrest |
77 476 |
-1.83 |
83 784 |
-1.12 |
26 768 |
||||
|
Fremantle |
79 467 |
+0.69 |
83 696 |
-1.23 |
205 |
||||
|
Kalgoorlie |
80 271 |
+1.71 |
83 979 |
-0.89 |
2 300 284 |
||||
|
Moore |
71 734 |
-9.10 |
86 231 |
+1.76 |
656 |
||||
|
O'Connor |
82 908 |
+5.05 |
85 869 |
+1.34 |
186 324 |
||||
|
Pearce |
76 198 |
-3.45 |
84 846 |
+0.13 |
14 345 |
||||
|
Perth |
83 755 |
+6.13 |
85 372 |
+0.75 |
106 |
||||
|
Stirling |
83 898 |
+6.30 |
84 386 |
-0.41 |
76 |
||||
|
Swan |
82 176 |
+4.12 |
84 546 |
-0.23 |
142 |
||||
|
Tangney |
80 466 |
+1.95 |
84 405 |
-0.39 |
94 |
||||
|
Total |
1 104 904 |
1 186 317 |
2 532 698 |
||||||
|
Average |
78 921 |
84 736 |
|||||||
|
Source: Australian Electoral Commission, 1997 Redistribution of Western Australia into Electoral Divisions, AGPS, Canberra 1997. |
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Although the 1997 redistribution resulted in changes to all 14 Electoral Divisions in Western Australia, some changes were relatively minor and had little impact on the political complexion of the State. The main features of the redistribution are summarised below. It should be noted that in the following section all references to voting figures are two party preferred votes for the 1996 House of Representatives election.
The following table shows the electoral effects of the 1997 redistribution using the 1996 House of Representatives election results. Because of the substantial level of support for independent candidates in some Western Australian Electoral Divisions some of the movements shown in the table are due to the absence or presence of a candidate in the areas moving to a new Division. For instance, in Curtin the two-candidate preferred vote for the sitting Independent Member (A Rocher) has declined from 57.3% to 55.9% because Mr Rocher was not a candidate in those parts of the Division that were acquired from Stirling.
Effects of 1997 Redistribution - Western Australia
1996 Election Results
Per cent
|
First Preference Votes |
Two Party Votes |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Division |
ALP |
LP |
NP |
AD |
Oth |
ALP |
LP/NP |
|
Brand |
|||||||
|
Old |
43.9 |
42.6 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
9.0 |
50.2 |
49.8 |
|
New |
44.4 |
41.7 |
0.7 |
3.8 |
9.5 |
51.1 |
48.9 |
|
Canning |
|||||||
|
Old |
41.3 |
44.2 |
0.0 |
6.2 |
8.4 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
|
New |
40.6 |
44.7 |
0.1 |
5.9 |
8.8 |
48.7 |
51.3 |
|
Cowan |
|||||||
|
Old |
41.6 |
46.4 |
0.0 |
7.6 |
4.4 |
47.6 |
52.4 |
|
New |
39.6 |
45.3 |
0.0 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
45.7 |
54.3 |
|
Curtin (a) |
|||||||
|
Old |
19.8 |
39.1 |
0.0 |
4.3 |
36.8 |
35.9 |
64.1 |
|
New |
20.5 |
42.0 |
0.0 |
4.4 |
33.1 |
36.8 |
63.2 |
|
Forrest |
|||||||
|
Old |
29.0 |
57.0 |
0.0 |
5.1 |
8.9 |
36.4 |
63.6 |
|
New |
28.7 |
57.1 |
0.0 |
5.1 |
9.0 |
35.9 |
64.1 |
|
Fremantle |
|||||||
|
Old |
46.9 |
40.4 |
0.0 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
54.3 |
45.7 |
|
New |
46.7 |
40.5 |
0.0 |
5.9 |
6.9 |
54.2 |
45.8 |
|
Kalgoorlie (a) |
|||||||
|
Old |
34.7 |
24.3 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
38.8 |
53.4 |
46.6 |
|
New |
33.7 |
26.6 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
36.3 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
|
Moore (a) |
|||||||
|
Old |
28.4 |
27.3 |
0.0 |
4.5 |
39.7 |
41.8 |
58.2 |
|
New |
29.6 |
26.3 |
0.0 |
4.6 |
39.4 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
|
O'Connor |
|||||||
|
Old |
17.8 |
56.0 |
18.1 |
3.4 |
4.8 |
24.1 |
75.9 |
|
New |
23.1 |
53.4 |
15.3 |
3.3 |
4.9 |
28.9 |
71.1 |
|
Pearce |
|||||||
|
Old |
28.9 |
54.2 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
6.9 |
37.8 |
62.2 |
|
New |
27.6 |
55.0 |
0.8 |
9.7 |
7.0 |
36.1 |
63.9 |
|
Perth |
|||||||
|
Old |
47.6 |
37.5 |
0.0 |
6.2 |
8.7 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
New |
47.3 |
38.3 |
0.0 |
6.3 |
8.1 |
56.7 |
43.3 |
|
Stirling |
|||||||
|
Old |
38.4 |
50.1 |
0.0 |
5.2 |
6.2 |
44.8 |
55.2 |
|
New |
38.2 |
45.0 |
0.0 |
5.2 |
11.5 |
46.7 |
53.3 |
|
Swan |
|||||||
|
Old |
36.9 |
42.3 |
0.0 |
5.4 |
15.4 |
46.3 |
53.7 |
|
New |
37.0 |
42.8 |
0.0 |
5.8 |
14.4 |
46.3 |
53.7 |
|
Tangney |
|||||||
|
Old |
30.0 |
55.4 |
0.0 |
8.9 |
5.6 |
37.9 |
62.1 |
|
New |
30.9 |
54.9 |
0.0 |
8.6 |
5.6 |
38.1 |
61.9 |
| (a) Two Candidate Preferred Votes:
Curtin: Old=Rocher 57.3%, LP 42.7%; New=Rocher 55.9%, LP 44.1%. Kalgoorlie: Old =Campbell 60.3%, ALP 39.7%; New= Campbell 62.1%, ALP 37.9%. Moore: Old=Filing 65.5%, ALP 34.5%; New=Filing 63.5%, ALP 36.5%. |
|||||||
|
Source: Australian Electoral Commission |
|||||||
While the 1997 redistribution resulted in changes to the boundaries of all 14 Divisions in Western Australia most changes were minor and only involved moving a relatively small number of electors. Because of this the redistribution process was rather uneventful and passed with only mild interest from the public and the media. This was in contrast with the situation in Queensland and to a lesser extent in the ACT where the respective redistributions generated considerable interest.
The continuing high population growth in Queensland resulted in the State gaining an additional seat in the House of Representatives at the 1997 determination. This was the third successive determination that resulted in Queensland's entitlement being increased. With the 1997 determination Queensland's entitlement is now 27.
The Redistribution Committee received suggestions and comments from the three major political parties as well as from a number of Federal members, local councils and private individuals. While the three major parties made suggestions covering the whole of the state only the Liberal and National parties addressed the issue of the location of the new seat. The Liberal Party proposed that the new seat be located south and west of Ipswich and extending northwards to encompass the Brisbane Valley and parts of the South Burnett. The National Party proposal was for a new seat stretching from Dalby on the Darling Downs to the Sunshine Coast.
The Redistribution Committee noted that similarities between this redistribution and the 1991 and 1994 redistributions. In particular they noted the following trends:
In framing its proposals the general approach of the Committee was to deal with Divisions at the extremities of the State and move towards the south east. The result of this strategy was the release of excess enrolment from Divisions north and south of Brisbane as well as from Groom. The end result of this process was the proposed Division of Blair, made up of parts of the existing Divisions of Fisher, Groom, Longman and Oxley(6). The location of the new Division is broadly consistent with the location of the new seats (Longman and Dickson) created at the last two residstributions in Queensland.
The Redistribution Committee's proposal for the location of the new Division bears a striking resemblance to the Liberal Party's suggestion and led to some media speculation that the Redistribution Committee's proposals were politically motivated, a suggestion that was vigorously denied by the Australian Electoral Commission Chairman Trevor Morling QC(7).
The new Division was named after Mr Harold Blair AO, the noted tenor and Aboriginal activist. See the following box section for the guidelines followed by Redistribution Committees in naming federal Divisions.
|
Naming of Federal Electoral Divisions The naming of Federal Electoral Divisions is often one of the more controversial aspects of the redistribution process. Considerable controversy surrounded the 1994 redistribution in Queensland over the naming of the Divisions of Forde and Rankin and in the ACT in 1997 over the names of the two remaining seats. The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters in its 1995 report1 specified the following guidelines to be followed in naming Federal Electoral Divisions. While Redistribution Committees take the guidelines into account they consider that they are in no way bound by them2.
_______________________
2. Redistribution Committee for Queensland, 1997 Proposed Redistribution of Queensland into Electoral Divisions, [1997]. |
The Augmented Electoral Commission for Queensland considered the Redistribution Committee's proposals and the 71 objections to the proposals before announcing the outcome of its deliberations on 26 September 1997. The final determination of boundaries in Queensland will be delayed till after the close of the poll for the Constitutional Convention election to be held in November and December 1997. The Augmented Electoral Commission made very few changes to the Committee's proposals. The main changes affected the proposed Divisions of Blair and Oxley in the south east of the State and Kennedy and Leichhardt in the north. A summary of the new Divisions is provided in the table below.
Queensland Electoral Divisions - 1997 Redistribution
|
Division |
Electors May 1997 |
Variation from quota May 1997 % |
Projected enrolment Jun 2001 |
Variation from average Jun 2001 % |
Area sq km |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Blair |
72 966 |
-6.60 |
84 185 |
-1.64 |
15 095 |
|
Bowman |
76 779 |
-1.72 |
84 619 |
-1.13 |
600 |
|
Brisbane |
85 909 |
+9.97 |
84 862 |
-0.85 |
72 |
|
Capricornia |
80 986 |
+3.67 |
86 964 |
+1.61 |
235 400 |
|
Dawson |
81 635 |
+4.52 |
87 199 |
+1.88 |
22 440 |
|
Dickson |
75 459 |
-3.41 |
85 215 |
-0.44 |
754 |
|
Fadden |
74 614 |
-4.49 |
84 556 |
-1.21 |
591 |
|
Fairfax |
72 150 |
-7.64 |
84 279 |
-1.53 |
4 270 |
|
Fisher |
71 713 |
-8.20 |
87 270 |
+1.97 |
558 |
|
Forde |
71 256 |
-8.79 |
86 565 |
+1.14 |
4 873 |
|
Griffith |
82 894 |
+6.11 |
84 833 |
-0.88 |
123 |
|
Groom |
78 569 |
+0.57 |
84 434 |
-1.35 |
6 417 |
|
Herbert |
80 973 |
+3.65 |
87 198 |
+1.88 |
2 966 |
|
Hinkler |
75 824 |
-2.94 |
84 004 |
-1.85 |
15 427 |
|
Kennedy |
83 795 |
+7.26 |
87 258 |
+1.95 |
562 160 |
|
Leichhardt |
75 740 |
-3.05 |
87 245 |
+1.94 |
150 236 |
|
Lilley |
85 588 |
+9.56 |
85 646 |
+0.07 |
139 |
|
Longman |
71 724 |
-8.19 |
86 794 |
+1.41 |
1 984 |
|
McPherson |
77 520 |
-0.77 |
86 449 |
+1.01 |
369 |
|
Maranoa |
81 951 |
+4.90 |
84 811 |
-0.91 |
650 504 |
|
Moncrieff |
77 746 |
-0.48 |
85 133 |
-0.53 |
182 |
|
Moreton |
83 770 |
+7.23 |
85 416 |
-0.20 |
107 |
|
Oxley |
76 131 |
-2.55 |
84 305 |
-1.50 |
669 |
|
Petrie |
82 364 |
+5.43 |
85 354 |
+0.27 |
149 |
|
Rankin |
74 090 |
-5.16 |
85 390 |
-0.23 |
151 |
|
Ryan |
81 440 |
+4.25 |
85 827 |
-0.28 |
238 |
|
Wide Bay |
75 673 |
-3.13 |
85 048 |
-0.63 |
53 826 |
|
Total |
2 109 277 |
2 310 859 |
1 730 300 |
||
|
Average |
78 121 |
85 587 |
|||
|
Source: Augmented Electoral Commission Decides Federal Electoral Boundaries and Names for Queensland, Press Release, 26 September 1997. |
|||||
The 1997 redistribution resulted in changes to all but three Divisions in the State. The Divisions of Bowman and Griffith in Brisbane and McPherson on the Gold Coast were unaffected by the redistribution, while the Division of Rankin (based on Brisbane's south-eastern suburbs) was changed from a marginal Labor seat to a notionally marginal Liberal seat. The most controversial feature of the redistribution was the creation of the Division of Blair from the old seat of Oxley and the implications of this for the sitting Independent member, Ms Pauline Hanson.
It is the belief of many commentators that Ms Hanson's best chances at the next election would be to run for the Senate rather than contest her existing seat of Oxley or the new seat of Blair, the assumption being that Blair would be a safe Coalition seat while Oxley would be a natural Labor seat, particularly if the former Labor Premier Mr Wayne Goss contests Oxley. The chance of a preference deal between the Coalition and Labor to place Ms Hanson last on the ballot paper was also thought to lessen her chances in either seat. Ms Hanson ended speculation on 20 August 1997 as to her intentions by announcing, through her spokesman Mr David Oldfield, that she would not run for the Senate at the next election but would contest a House of Representatives seat(8). However, at this time Ms Hanson did not disclose which specific seat she would contest.
The situation in the Division of Oxley was further complicated by the illness of the potential Labor candidate Mr Wayne Goss. In a concession to Mr Goss' illness the Labor Party announced that it was delaying the closing of preselection nominations for Oxley until February 1998(9).
The main features of the redistribution are summarised below. It should be noted that in the following section, references to voting figures are two-party preferred votes for the 1996 House of Representatives election except where stated.
The following table shows the electoral effects of the 1997 redistribution using the 1996 House of Representatives election results.
Effects of 1997 Redistribution - Queensland
1996 Election Results
Per cent
|
First Preference Votes |
Two Party Votes |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Division |
ALP |
LP |
NP |
AD |
Oth |
ALP |
LP/NP |
|
Blair (a) |
|||||||
|
Old |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
|
New |
26.2 |
46.2 |
15.9 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
32.5 |
67.5 |
|
Bowman (b) |
|||||||
|
Old |
42.1 |
46.5 |
0.0 |
8.4 |
3.0 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
|
New |
42.1 |
46.5 |
0.0 |
8.4 |
3.0 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
|
Brisbane |
|||||||
|
Old |
38.2 |
44.7 |
0.0 |
9.0 |
8.1 |
50.4 |
49.6 |
|
New |
38.7 |
44.0 |
0.6 |
8.8 |
8.0 |
50.4 |
49.6 |
|
Capricornia |
|||||||
|
Old |
40.4 |
23.5 |
27.9 |
5.2 |
3.0 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
New |
40.3 |
22.9 |
28.6 |
5.3 |
2.9 |
46.3 |
53.7 |
|
Dawson |
|||||||
|
Old |
35.5 |
23.9 |
35.7 |
3.9 |
1.0 |
40.1 |
59.9 |
|
New |
34.7 |
24.2 |
36.2 |
3.9 |
1.0 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
|
Dickson |
|||||||
|
Old |
39.9 |
42.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
46.8 |
53.2 |
|
New |
39.5 |
41.9 |
6.6 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
Fadden |
|||||||
|
Old |
26.0 |
60.8 |
0.0 |
9.8 |
3.3 |
32.2 |
67.8 |
|
New |
26.2 |
60.4 |
0.2 |
9.8 |
3.4 |
32.5 |
67.5 |
|
Fairfax |
|||||||
|
Old |
24.0 |
62.1 |
0.0 |
8.0 |
5.8 |
31.9 |
68.1 |
|
New |
24.7 |
42.7 |
18.1 |
8.1 |
6.3 |
32.3 |
67.7 |
|
Fisher |
|||||||
|
Old |
22.9 |
45.1 |
20.6 |
5.3 |
6.2 |
29.7 |
70.3 |
|
New |
23.3 |
56.2 |
9.2 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
29.7 |
70.3 |
|
Forde |
|||||||
|
Old |
33.6 |
40.8 |
14.2 |
8.0 |
3.3 |
40.3 |
59.7 |
|
New |
32.2 |
41.7 |
14.8 |
7.9 |
3.3 |
38.8 |
61.2 |
|
Griffith (b) |
|||||||
|
Old |
41.3 |
43.8 |
3.7 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
New |
41.3 |
43.8 |
3.7 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
Groom |
|||||||
|
Old |
22.1 |
64.8 |
0.0 |
5.8 |
7.3 |
28.7 |
71.3 |
|
New |
22.1 |
58.4 |
6.8 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
28.5 |
71.5 |
|
Herbert |
|||||||
|
Old |
36.6 |
38.7 |
15.1 |
5.9 |
3.6 |
43.4 |
56.6 |
|
New |
36.6 |
38.4 |
15.6 |
5.9 |
3.5 |
43.3 |
56.7 |
|
Hinkler |
|||||||
|
Old |
36.1 |
0.0 |
55.5 |
5.1 |
3.3 |
39.6 |
60.4 |
|
New |
37.9 |
0.5 |
53.1 |
5.1 |
3.3 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
|
Kennedy |
|||||||
|
Old |
29.6 |
0.0 |
59.9 |
6.6 |
3.9 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
|
New |
29.4 |
2.4 |
57.5 |
6.6 |
4.0 |
35.6 |
64.4 |
|
Leichhardt |
|||||||
|
Old |
38.0 |
31.8 |
20.4 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
45.8 |
54.2 |
|
New |
38.4 |
32.1 |
19.7 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
46.2 |
53.8 |
|
Lilley |
|||||||
|
Old |
43.2 |
46.1 |
0.0 |
6.6 |
4.1 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
|
New |
43.1 |
46.1 |
6.6 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
|
Longman |
|||||||
|
Old |
30.7 |
38.7 |
17.6 |
7.4 |
5.6 |
38.4 |
61.6 |
|
New |
31.8 |
40.3 |
14.5 |
7.5 |
5.9 |
39.8 |
60.2 |
|
McPherson (b) |
|||||||
|
Old |
26.2 |
61.6 |
0.0 |
6.4 |
5.8 |
33.0 |
67.0 |
|
New |
26.2 |
61.6 |
0.0 |
6.4 |
5.8 |
33.0 |
67.0 |
|
Maranoa |
|||||||
|
Old |
21.0 |
0.0 |
70.5 |
6.1 |
2.4 |
24.3 |
75.7 |
|
New |
23.7 |
0.9 |
67.0 |
6.0 |
2.5 |
27.1 |
72.9 |
|
Moncrieff |
|||||||
|
Old |
22.8 |
64.8 |
0.0 |
4.9 |
7.5 |
29.7 |
70.3 |
|
New |
22.7 |
64.9 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
2.3 |
29.6 |
70.4 |
|
Moreton |
|||||||
|
Old |
36.9 |
50.2 |
0.0 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
44.9 |
55.1 |
|
New |
36.0 |
50.9 |
0.0 |
6.9 |
6.3 |
44.1 |
55.9 |
|
Oxley(c) |
|||||||
|
Old |
39.4 |
48.6 |
0.0 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
45.3 |
54.7 |
|
New |
44.0 |
43.4 |
0.0 |
6.6 |
6.0 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
|
Petrie |
|||||||
|
Old |
36.4 |
51.2 |
0.0 |
6.6 |
5.9 |
42.3 |
57.7 |
|
New |
36.0 |
51.6 |
0.2 |
6.5 |
5.6 |
42.0 |
58.0 |
|
Rankin |
|||||||
|
Old |
45.0 |
41.0 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
5.4 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
|
New |
42.2 |
43.1 |
0.9 |
8.5 |
5.3 |
48.9 |
51.1 |
|
Ryan |
|||||||
|
Old |
25.1 |
59.9 |
0.0 |
10.1 |
4.9 |
33.1 |
66.9 |
|
New |
25.4 |
59.5 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
5.1 |
33.5 |
66.5 |
|
Wide Bay |
|||||||
|
Old |
26.4 |
0.0 |
59.5 |
7.4 |
6.6 |
31.5 |
68.5 |
|
New |
27.5 |
0.5 |
59.0 |
6.9 |
6.0 |
32.3 |
67.7 |
|
(a) New Division, results on old boundaries are not available. (b) Divisions unaffected by the redistribution. (c) Votes for the Independent member, Ms P Hanson, were recorded as Liberal Party votes by the Australian Electoral Commission. n.a. not applicable |
|||||||
It could be argued that the Labor Party vote in Queensland at the 1996 election was unusually low and that a more accurate picture of the political consequences of the redistribution could be obtained from the 1993 election results. To this end the following table compares the two party preferred vote at the 1993 and 1996 election on the 1997 boundaries.
1997 Redistribution - Queensland
Two Party Preferred Votes - 1996 and 1993 Election
Per cent
|
Division |
1996 Election |
1993 Election |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Old Boundaries |
New Boundaries |
Old Boundaries |
New Boundaries |
|||||
|
ALP |
LP/NP |
ALP |
LP/NP |
ALP |
LP/NP |
ALP |
LP/NP |
|
|
Blair |
n.a. |
n.a. |
32.5 |
67.5 |
n.a. |
n.a. |
46.1 |
53.9 |
|
Bowman (a) |
49.1 |
50.9 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
58.0 |
42.0 |
58.0 |
42.0 |
|
Brisbane |
50.4 |
49.6 |
50.4 |
49.6 |
56.2 |
43.8 |
56.2 |
43.8 |
|
Capricornia |
46.4 |
53.6 |
46.3 |
53.7 |
52.8 |
47.2 |
52.6 |
47.4 |
|
Dawson |
40.1 |
59.9 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
46.0 |
54.0 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
Dickson |
46.8 |
53.2 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
52.6 |
47.4 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
Fadden |
32.2 |
67.8 |
32.5 |
67.5 |
44.8 |
55.2 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
Fairfax |
31.9 |
68.1 |
32.3 |
67.7 |
39.9 |
60.1 |
40.6 |
59.4 |
|
Fisher |
29.7 |
70.3 |
29.7 |
70.3 |
39.7 |
60.3 |
39.8 |
60.2 |
|
Forde |
40.3 |
59.7 |
38.8 |
61.2 |
49.7 |
50.3 |
49.6 |
50.4 |
|
Griffith (a) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
56.1 |
43.9 |
56.1 |
43.9 |
|
Groom |
28.7 |
71.3 |
28.5 |
71.5 |
35.9 |
64.1 |
35.4 |
64.6 |
|
Herbert |
43.4 |
56.6 |
43.3 |
56.7 |
53.3 |
46.7 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
Hinkler |
39.6 |
60.4 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
|
Kennedy |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.6 |
64.4 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
46.9 |
53.1 |
|
Leichhardt |
45.8 |
54.2 |
46.2 |
53.8 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
51.4 |
48.6 |
|
Lilley |
49.3 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
56.2 |
43.8 |
56.4 |
43.6 |
|
Longman |
38.4 |
61.6 |
39.8 |
60.2 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
49.2 |
50.8 |
|
McPherson (a) |
33.0 |
67.0 |
33.0 |
67.0 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
|
Maranoa |
24.3 |
75.7 |
27.1 |
72.9 |
31.9 |
68.1 |
34.7 |
65.3 |
|
Moncrieff |
29.7 |
70.3 |
29.6 |
70.4 |
37.1 |
62.9 |
37.7 |
62.3 |
|
Moreton |
44.9 |
55.1 |
44.1 |
55.9 |
50.2 |
49.8 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
|
Oxley |
45.3 |
54.7 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
64.6 |
35.4 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
|
Petrie |
42.3 |
57.7 |
42.0 |
58.0 |
52.2 |
47.8 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
|
Rankin |
51.3 |
48.7 |
48.9 |
51.1 |
63.0 |
37.0 |
58.7 |
41.3 |
|
Ryan |
33.1 |
66.9 |
33.5 |
66.5 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
39.9 |
60.1 |
|
Wide Bay |
31.5 |
68.5 |
32.3 |
67.7 |
41.2 |
58.8 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
|
(a) Divisions unaffected by the 1997 redistribution. n.a. not applicable |
||||||||
The most notable feature of the above table is the changed status of the Division of Hinkler from a marginal Coalition seat to a marginal Labor seat when using the 1993 election results. Other changes of note in the 1993 figures are the decline in the Labor Party vote in Rankin and Dickson and the decline in the vote for the Coalition in Longman and Maranoa.
On 9 October 1997 the Labor Party Member for Fraser, Mr Steve Dargavel, announced(10) that he had decided not to recontest his seat at the next election, thus preventing a potentially damaging preselection contest for the Labor Party in the ACT, a situation that was the result of the entitlement of the ACT being reduced from three to two at the 1997 determination.
Despite a rearguard campaign by the Member for Canberra, Hon. Bob McMullan, to include the population of Norfolk Island in the population of the ACT for representational entitlement purposes, the 1997 determination reduced the ACT's entitlement by one(11).
The main focus of submissions to the Redistribution Committee was the naming of the two ACT Divisions. The Committee received nine suggestions, only two of which gave any consideration to the drawing of new boundaries while the other seven related solely to the naming of the two Divisions(12).
In the end the Committee decided to retain the names of Fraser, for the northern Division, and Canberra, for the southern Division. In announcing its decision to retain Fraser and Canberra at the expense of Namadgi the Committee concluded that 'Canberra and Fraser are well established names within the ACT community and that there was insufficient reason for changing them'(13). A summary of the new Divisions is given in the table below.
Australian Capital Territory Electoral Divisions - 1997 Redistribution
|
Division |
Electors May 1997 |
Variation from quota May 1997 % |
Projected enrolment Mar 2001 |
Variation from average Mar 2001 % |
Area sq km |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Canberra |
104 282 |
+1.94 |
108 213 |
+0.19 |
n.a. |
|
Fraser |
100 319 |
-1.94 |
107 804 |
-0.19 |
n.a. |
|
Total |
204 601 |
216 017 |
n.a. |
||
|
Average |
102 301 |
108 009 |
|||
|
n.a. not available Source: Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries and Names for the ACT, Press Release, 29 September 1997. |
|||||
The abolition of the Division of Namadgi means that the electoral map for the ACT returns to its traditional shape with one electorate based largely north of Lake Burley Griffin and the other based south of the lake. The Division of Fraser includes the districts of Belconnen, Gungahlin, North Canberra and parts of South Canberra while the Division of Canberra includes the remainder of South Canberra and the districts of Woden, Weston Creek and Tuggeranong. The two ACT electorates together with the Northern Territory seat are now the largest, in terms of electors enrolled, in Australia. Both new ACT seats are notional Labor seats with Fraser being considerably safer (margin 8.8%) than Canberra (margin 2.5%). The following table shows the electoral effects of the 1997 redistribution.
Effects of 1997 Redistribution - Australian Capital Territory
1996 Election Results
Per cent
|
First Preference Votes |
Two Party Votes |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Division |
ALP |
LP |
NP |
AD |
Oth |
ALP |
LP/NP |
|
Canberra |
|||||||
|
Old |
48.3 |
38.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
13.6 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
New |
45.5 |
43.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
10.7 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
Fraser |
|||||||
|
Old |
50.5 |
39.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.9 |
57.3 |
42.7 |
|
New |
50.6 |
37.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
11.6 |
58.8 |
41.2 |
|
Namadgi (a) |
|||||||
|
Old |
45.1 |
45.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.8 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
New |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
n.a. |
|
(a) Division abolished, results on new boundaries are not available. n.a. not applicable |
|||||||
Since 1984 federal electoral redistributions have become an integral part of the Australian political landscape. There have been thirteen electoral redistributions in the various States and ACT since the current procedures came into force with the passage of the Commonwealth Electoral Legislation Amendment Act 1983(14). By way of contrast, in the thirteen years prior to 1983 nine redistributions were held.
Of the thirteen redistributions held under the current provisions, only the 1992 redistributions of Tasmania and the ACT and the 1997 redistribution of Western Australia were triggered by the statutory period of seven years elapsing after the preceding redistribution. The following schedule shows the date of the most recent redistribution held in each State and the ACT and the prospective date of the next redistribution scheduled to be held under the 'seven year' rule i.e. assuming that a redistribution is not triggered in the meantime by the malapportionment clause or a change in entitlements.
Redistribution Dates
|
Last Redistribution |
Next Scheduled Redistribution (a) |
||
|---|---|---|---|
|
New South Wales |
31 Jan 1992 |
Feb 1999 |
|
|
Victoria |
20 Dec 1994 |
Jan 2002 |
|
|
Queensland |
Dec 1997 |
(b) |
Jan 2005 |
|
South Australia |
17 Jan 1992 |
Feb 1999 |
|
|
Western Australia |
6 Mar 1997 |
Apr 2004 |
|
|
Tasmania |
1 Apr 1994 |
May 2001 |
|
|
Australian Capital Territory |
Dec 1997 |
(b) |
Jan 2005 |
|
(a) Under section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 a direction initiating a redistribution must be made within 30 days of the end of the period of seven years after a State or ACT was last redistributed. (b) Date yet to be determined. |
|||
According to the above the next States to be redistributed are New South Wales and South Australia, with redistributions scheduled to commence in February 1999. However, this schedule may be disrupted by the timing of the next Federal election. Under section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 a redistribution cannot commence within one year before the date of expiry of the term of a House of Representatives. The date of expiry for the current House of Representatives is 30 April 1999. Assuming that the current House of Representatives serves its full term then the redistributions scheduled in New South Wales and South Australia for February 1999 will have to be delayed till after the 1999 election. If the current House of Representatives is dissolved before February 1999 then the above schedule will stand as long as the Electoral Commission is of the view that there will be no change in the representation entitlements of the affected States at the next determination of entitlements.