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Is Youth Worse Off Than Two Decades Ago?
Tony Kryger
Statistics Group
22 June 1998
Introduction
On almost every indicator, young people are considerably worse off today
than they were twenty, or even ten, years ago. Wages are lower while suicides,
unemployment, and home-lessness are all higher than was the case in earlier
years. In terms of health risk factors, there has been improvement in
some areas-fewer smokers and drinkers-but deterioration in other areas-young
people exercise less and are more overweight. Youth participation in education
has improved but this may be a reflection of the worsening labour market
situation for youth.
Real Wages
Real wages, or wages after adjustment for inflation, have fallen sharply
for young people over the past 20 years. This contrasts with an increase
in adult wages over the same period.
Wages are defined here as the full-time weekly earnings of non-managerial
employees expressed in constant 1996 prices (to adjust for the influence
of inflation). Defined in these terms, real wages for young males have
fallen from $395 in 1976 to $342 in 1986 to $322 in 1996. Real wages for
young females have also fallen during the same period from $361 to $332
to $316.
Overall, the last 20 years has seen a fall of 18 per cent in real wages
for young males and a fall of 12 per cent for young females. Real wages
for adult males and females on the other hand have risen 7 and 12 per
cent respectively. The net effect is a considerable widening of the gap
between adult and junior wages.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate for young people has risen faster than for any
other group in the community. In the 20 years to 1998, the full-time unemployment
rate for 15-24 year olds rose from 11 to 17 per cent for males and from
13 to 17 per cent for females. The rate of increase was even greater for
15-19 year olds.
More significant than the rise in unemployment, however, has been the
increase in underemployment among young people. Underemployment refers
mainly to persons working part-time who would prefer to be working more
hours. The underemployment rate expresses the number of underemployed
as a proportion of the labour force. In the last 20 years, the underemployment
rate has risen sharply from 2 to 10 per cent for males and from 4 to 13
per cent for females.
The number of full-time unemployed 15-24 year olds has not changed very
much at all, however, when measured as a proportion of the 15-24 year
population. This mainly reflects the fact of increasing participation
by this age group in education.
Education
One of the few indicators to show any improvement for young people is
participation in education. Over the past decade, the education participation
rate for 15-19 year olds (or 15-19 year olds in education as a proportion
of the 15-19 population) rose from 64 to 77 per cent. For 20-24 year olds
the increase was from 19 to 31 per cent.
Suicides
A disturbing trend has been the steep rise in the number of suicides
among young males. In 1976 there were 15 male suicides per 100 000
males in the 15-24 year age group, rising to 21 in 1986 and 25 in 1996.
Young female suicides have remained basically unchanged at around 4 per
100 000 females in the 15-24 year age group.
Health Risk Factors
In terms of health risk factors, there has been improvement in some areas
but deterioration in others. On the positive side, the proportion of smokers
has fallen sharply, from 39 per cent of all 18-24 year olds in 1977 to
36 per cent in 1989-90 to 30 per cent in 1995. Over the same period, the
proportion of medium to high risk drinkers rose from 10 to 14 per cent
and then fell to 9 per cent. On the negative side, youth exercise less
and are more overweight than was the case just a few years ago. In the
five years to 1995, the proportion of youth performing little or no exercise
rose from 57 to 60 per cent while the proportion of those overweight rose
from 20 to 22 per cent.
Homelessness
Quantitative information on homeless youth is always difficult to obtain
because of the mobile nature of this section of the population and their
small number. In 1991, Chamberlain and MacKenzie(1) produced an estimate
of the homeless youth population using Supported Accommodation and Assistance
Program (SAAP) data. In May 1991 the total homeless youth population was
found to be between 15 000 and 19 000 for those in the 12 to
24 year age group and between 8 000 and 10 000 for 12 to 18
year olds.
Five years later, the 1994 census of people using SAAP services produced
an estimate of 21 000 homeless young people aged 12 to 18 years.
In other words, the number of homeless youth aged 12 to 18 had doubled
from 8 000 to 10 000 in 1991 to 21 000 in 1994.
Further evidence of the rise in the number of homeless young people is
provided by figures on Independent Homeless Rate (IHR) recipients-previously
Young Homeless Allowees-with Centrelink. While these figures do not measure
the full extent of youth homelessness, they are significant in that they
also show a doubling of homelessness from 4 880 IHR recipients in
June 1991 to 9 900 in June 1994. By June 1997 the number of IHR recipients
had fallen slightly to 9 549.
(1) Chamberlain, C. and MacKenzie, D. 'Youth Homelessness on the Increase'.
Parity, vol 10, issue 2, March 1997, pp 4-5.
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