Research Note 36 1997-98

1997 Electoral Pendulum

Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
30 March 1998

Introduction

During 1997 redistributions of federal electoral boundaries in Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were finalised. The redistributions resulted in the creation of the new division of Blair in Queensland and the abolition of Namadgi in the ACT. After the redistributions were finalised the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) estimated the two-party-preferred vote at the 1996 election in each of the redistributed divisions.

This Research Note uses the AEC data together with the results from the 1996 election for those divisions that were not affected by the redistributions to present an 'electoral pendulum' for all divisions. The pendulum ranks each division in terms of the two -party-preferred swing required for the division to change hands at the next election.

Highlights

The pendulum shows the Liberal-National Coalition notionally holding 99 seats and the Labor Party holding 49 seats. Four seats currently held by Independents are counted as notional Coalition seats (Curtin, Moore, Calare and Lowe) while two are shown as notional Labor seats (Kalgoorlie and Oxley).

Based on the pendulum the Labor Party would need a uniform two-party-preferred swing of 4.6% to win the necessary 28 seats (from the Coalition) required for a majority in the House of Representatives. Labor would require a slightly smaller swing (4.3%) if it were to win two of the Independent held seats and 3.9% if it were to win three of the Independent held seats.

The Coalition notionally holds 36 seats that are defined as marginal by the AEC (requiring a swing of 6% or less) while the Labor Party notionally holds 16 marginal seats. The Coalition notionally holds six seats that require a swing of less than 1%, while Labor notionally holds five. The most marginal Coalition seat is the NSW coastal seat of Paterson (0.4%) while the most marginal Labor seat is the NSW Central Coast seat of Dobell (0.1%).

Of the seats that are defined as being safe (requiring a swing of more than 10%) the Coalition notionally holds 49 and the Labor Party holds 23. The safest Coalition seat is the Sydney north shore seat of Bradfield (25.8%) while the safest Labor seat is the inner Melbourne seat of Wills (22.2%). A feature of the pendulum is the number of 'super-safe' seats (requiring a swing of 20% or more) held by the Coalition¾ - 13 to Labor's five.

Independents

For the purposes of the electoral pendulum seats that are currently held by Independents are notionally allocated to the Coalition or the Labor Party on the basis of the two-party-preferred vote at the 1996 election.

A more appropriate measure of the safeness of Independent held seats is the two-candidate-preferred vote which shows the vote, after the distribution of preferences, of the winning Independent candidate against the vote of the major party candidate who came second. However, the two-candidate-preferred vote in redistributed seats may be understated because of the absence of votes for the Independent in polling booths acquired from other divisions. Two-candidate-preferred votes for Independent held seats (except for Oxley and Lowe, where unique circumstances apply) are given below.

Calare	Ind 63.3	NP 36.7
Moore	Ind 63.5	ALP 36.5
Kalgoorlie	Ind 62.1	ALP 37.9
Curtin	Ind 55.9	LP 44.1

1997 Electoral Pendulum
LP/NP Seats						ALP Seats
Swing to lose			Swing to lose				Swing to lose
	%			%			%
Bradfield	25.8		Grey	8.5		Wills	22.2
Mitchell	24.3		Moore (a)	8.5		Batman	21.3
Murray	24.2		Petrie	8.3		Gellibrand	21.2
Mallee	23.5		Hindmarsh	8.1		Scullin	20.7
Maranoa	21.5		Hinkler	7.9		Melbourne	20.2
Groom	21.3		Wentworth	7.8		Throsby	19.6
Farrer	21.2		Corangamite	7.7		Maribyrnong	18.9
O'Connor	21.1		Richmond	6.8		Lalor	18.5
Riverina	21.0		Herbert	6.6		Fowler	18.3
Barker	20.9		Casey	6.6		Calwell	17.2
Fisher	20.6		Parkes	6.5		Grayndler	16.4
Moncrieff	20.5		Macquarie	6.4		Chifley	14.5
Wakefield	20.0		Gilmore	6.2		Prospect	13.9
New England	19.2		Moreton	6.0		Sydney	13.8
Gippsland	18.6		Braddon	5.7		Blaxland	13.0
Blair	18.6		Aston	5.6		Cunningham	12.9
Gwydir	18.5		Hughes	4.9		Holt	12.8
Berowra	18.4		Eden-Monaro	4.8		Denison	11.8
Wide Bay	18.2		Bass	4.6		Watson	11.7
Indi	17.8		Leichhardt	4.6		Reid	11.4
Fairfax	17.6		Page	4.3		Newcastle	11.2
Fadden	17.5		Cowan	4.3		Hotham	10.6
McPherson	17.0		Parramatta	3.9		Kingsford-Smith	10.1
Ryan	17.0		Dickson	3.9		Bonython	9.5
Mackellar	16.5		Ballarat	3.7		Charlton	9.3
North Sydney	15.6		Swan	3.7		Fraser	8.9
Lyne	15.4		Robertson	3.6		Shortland	8.2
Warringah	15.3		Capricornia	3.5		Burke	7.0
Mayo	15.2		Adelaide	3.5		Hunter	7.0
Kennedy	14.2		Dunkley	3.4		Port Adelaide	7.0
Forrest	14.1		Stirling	3.3		Corio	6.8
Pearce	13.9		Calare (a)	2.9		Perth	6.7
Kooyong	13.8		Chisholm	2.6		Werriwa	6.2
Curtin (a)	13.2		Deakin	2.5		Melbourne Ports	6.0
Cook	12.3		Lowe (a)	2.5		Franklin	4.7
Wannon	12.3		McEwen	2.2		Barton	4.3
Forde	12.0		McMillan	2.1		Fremantle	4.2
Tangney	11.9		Kingston	2.0		Greenway	3.4
Hume	11.8		Lindsay	1.6		Jagajaga	2.7
Boothby	11.6		Griffith	1.5		Canberra	2.3
Cowper	11.6		La Trobe	1.4		Isaacs	1.6
Menzies	11.0		Canning	1.3		Banks	1.4
Goldstein	10.9		Makin	1.1		Lyons	1.3
Dawson	10.8		Bendigo	0.9		Brand	1.1
Higgins	10.7		Bowman	0.9		Bruce	0.8
Macarthur	10.7		Rankin	0.4		Kalgoorlie (a)	0.7
Bennelong	10.1		Lilley	0.4		Brisbane	0.7
Flinders	10.1		Northern Territory	0.4		Oxley (a)	0.4
Sturt	10.0		Paterson	0.4		Dobell	0.1
Longman	9.9
(a) Seats held by Independents. Note: Electoral Pendulum based on 1996 election results adjusted for the 1997 Redistribution. Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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