Motor Vehicle Registrations
Statistics on the registration of new motor vehicles is one measure of
motor vehicle sales and one which is widely quoted in the media. These
statistics are considered to be an important indicator of the health of
the economy as a whole and an indicator of economy-wide trends. The reason
for this is that during times of recession purchases of new vehicles fall
and at times when the economy is booming new vehicle purchases increase.
The purchase of new passenger vehicles forms a significant part
of consumer expenditure. Because of this, economic analysts consider that
passenger vehicle sales are an important indicator of consumer sentiment.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collects and publishes motor
vehicle registration statistics on a monthly basis.
Coverage
Motor vehicle registration is a state and territory concern. To compile
Australia-wide figures the ABS obtains statistics on registrations from
state and territory authorities.
All state and territory authorities except those in New South Wales,
Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia provide data to the ABS on
a monthly basis. These states provide data on a weekly basis. This means
that in some months the ABS processes five weeks of data for these states.
In turn this means it is possible in some months that there will be a
greater number of registrations recorded because the carry forward from
the previous month is likely to exceed the carry over to the next month.
In addition, for Queensland, data on the number of registrations processed
in a calendar month can relate to vehicles registered prior to that month.
While the ABS takes great care to ensure the consistency of the statistics
they publish, these state and territory differences mean that month to
month variations need to be treated with caution.
Monthly data
Figure 1 shows monthly seasonally adjusted passenger vehicle registrations
for the period from January 1977.
They show an irregular upward movement to a peak in early 1985 followed
by a decline to a low in mid 1987. Since 1987 there has been a peak in
early 1990, another trough in 1991-92 and a steady rise to the present
day.
In general these peaks and troughs mirror the wider economy over this
period. However, the dramatic drop in registrations in 1987 was due mainly
to a range of factors relevant at the time including a depreciation in
the Australian dollar, high interest rates and lower real disposable incomes.
The introduction of the fringe benefits tax at around this time is considered
to have had only a small effect on new car sales and hence on registrations.
Annual totals
Figure 2 shows annual totals for passenger vehicle registrations in Australia.
This graph smooths out some of the fluctuations in monthly data and shows
dramatically the drop in new registrations in 1987.
MESI Table 4.2
Monthly Economic and Social Indicators Table 4.2 shows:
- monthly seasonally adjusted data on new registrations of passenger
vehicles: motor cars, station wagons, four wheel drive passenger vehicles
and forward control passenger vehicles with up to nine seats including
the driver;
- annual totals; and
- annual percentage changes.
Monthly data are graphed to show the movement in the series over the
past few years.
Note that the motor vehicle registration series is subject to large irregular
fluctuations and care should be exercised when interpreting movements
in the series.
Further information can be obtained by contacting a member of the Statistics
Group in Information and Research Services, Department of the Parliamentary
Library.
This feature was prepared by Greg Baker.
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