Feature Article—Retail trade and bankruptcy revisions
Retail
trade revisions
In July 2008 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
announced revisions to the Retail Business Survey (RBS) which affected the data
reported in the ABS Retail Trade publication. Those changes, and their impact on this Bulletin, were discussed
in a feature article in the October 2008 edition. This short update discusses
the impact of the reversal of the ABS decision for future editions of this
publication.
The
earlier changes
In October 2008 we reported that the ABS was reducing
the sample size of the RBS, removing some industries from the survey and
adopting a new survey methodology for businesses remaining in the survey.
According to the ABS, the impact of these changes was that the sample would be
reduced by 59 per cent and that the increased standard error of the results
would make monthly comparisons unreliable. As a consequence, the data reported
in this Bulletin shifted to the more accurate quarterly seasonal adjusted
retail trade data, rather than the typical monthly data presented before the
change.
The
reversal of the decision
In November 2008 the ABS announced that it would be
reinstating a full sample for the RBS for each month. The change means that the
survey would revert to the methodology comparable to the system in place prior
to July 2008. However, one change has remained, the removal of hotels and
licensed clubs, video hire outlets and hairdressing and beauty salons from the
sample. Therefore, from November 2008 the RBS will survey 500 larger ‘fully
enumerated’ businesses and sample 2700 smaller businesses each month.
Monthly
Statistical Bulletin Table 4.1
As a result of this revision, the
Monthly Statistical Bulletin Table 4.1 will report seasonally adjusted
aggregate Australian retail trade on a monthly basis. This change has been
implemented from the March 2009 edition. The Bulletin will cease reporting the
quarterly retail sales series.
Bankruptcy
data revisions
The Monthly Statistical Bulletin has published one of
the measures of bankruptcy—the total number of bankruptcies—reported by the
Insolvency and Trustee Service Australia (ITSA). From March 2009, additional
data will be included on personal and business related bankruptcies.
What
is changing?
The ITSA data on bankruptcies, specifically those
persons administered under Part IV and XI of the Bankruptcy Act, is typically
presented on a state-by-state basis with a total for each quarter. In a
footnote ITSA identify how many of the total bankruptcies are business
related.
According to ITSA, a business related
bankruptcy is one “… in which an individual's bankruptcy is directly related to
his or her proprietary interest in a business.”
The Monthly Statistical Bulletin collection will now
include the total level of bankruptcies, personal bankruptcies and business
related bankruptcies as separate items, so that the type of bankruptcy can be
identified.
The disaggregated time series run from September
quarter 1997. The detail on total bankruptcies, which is available from 1948‑49
in the electronic bulletin, will remain available for client use.
Not a
new story
Strictly speaking, the impact of the new data is
limited as the Bulletin has usually included a description of the number of
business related bankruptcies. The main gain in this change is that the
personal and business bankruptcies will be identified over a five year period
in the print edition of the Bulletin, and that the electronic version will
include the full time series of both types of bankruptcies.
Comparison
across time
The data enrichment allows better comparisons of the
types of bankruptcies. Graph 1 displays the personal and business series. This
graph identifies that business related bankruptcies are essentially flat,
whereas personal bankruptcies are more volatile.
Graph 1. Bankruptcies
compared
Monthly
Statistical Bulletin Table 4.5
Monthly Statistical Bulletin print edition Table 4.5
will include quarterly and annual data for personal, business related and total
bankruptcies, changes in total bankruptcies and a graph showing the quarterly
movement in total bankruptcies. The electronic version of the table will
include quarterly and annual percentage changes in the separate series and a
graph of the levels of personal and business bankruptcies.
Adrian Makeham-Kirchner
Statistics and Mapping Section
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