Population change in Commonwealth electoral divisions, 2007 to 2008


16 October 2009

Paul Nelson
Statistics and Mapping Section

Contents

Introduction
Main features
  Table 1: Total population
    Table 1a: Estimated resident population by electoral division, 2007 and 2008
    Table 1b: Electoral divisions ranked by total population growth rate, 2007 to 2008
  Table 2: Population aged 0 to 4 years
    Table 2a: Estimated resident population aged 0 to 4 years by electoral division, 2007 and 2008
    Table 2b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 0 to 4 years age group, 2007 to 2008
  Table 3: Population aged 5 to 14 years
    Table 3a: Estimated resident population aged 5 to 14 years by electoral division, 2007 and 2008
    Table 3b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 5 to 14 years age group, 2007 to 2008
  Table 4: Population aged 65 years and over
    Table 4a: Estimated resident population aged 65 years and over by electoral division, 2007 and 2008
    Table 4b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 65 years and over age group, 2007 to 2008
     

 

Introduction

The Parliamentary Library has obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) unpublished Estimated Resident Population (ERP) data as at 30 June 2007 and 2008 for Commonwealth electoral divisions (or seats). This allows analysis of various aspects of population change for divisions over the period 2007 to 2008 on a consistent conceptual and geographic basis. The 2008 ERP figures are preliminary and subject to revision. The 2007 ERP figures contain revisions to preliminary data previously supplied to the Parliamentary Library and will only be finalised after the 2011 Census of Population and Housing.

ERP estimates are the official estimates of the Australian population and they link people to a place of usual residence within Australia. ERP data are considered to be superior estimates of the resident population compared with census figures because ERP includes adjustments for net census undercount and Australian residents temporarily living overseas. ERP figures have the advantage over census figures of being available on a quarterly or annual basis and are available as time series on a consistent basis.

The source 2007 and 2008 ERP electoral division data by single year of age and sex, as supplied by the ABS, are available from the Electorate Atlas (http://libiis1/Library_Services/electoralatlas/australia.htm) resource on the Parliamentary Library’s intranet (available only to Senators and Members) together with 2001 and 2006 ERP data previously supplied by the ABS. The historical data have been converted to 2007 electoral division boundaries to be on a consistent basis with current figures.

An analysis of 2007 and 2008 summary data for the total population, the 0 to 4 years age group, the 5 to 14 years age group, and the 65 and over age group are presented in the following tables.

Main features

A brief description of the contents of each table is given below together with a summary of some of the more interesting features of the data.

Table 1: Total population

Table 1a: Estimated resident population by electoral division, 2007 and 2008

Table 1b: Electoral divisions ranked by total population growth rate, 2007 to 2008

Table 1a shows the total ERP in 2007 and 2008 as well as the population change and growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetic order of electoral divisions. Table 1b shows the same data as in Table 1a with the data ranked by the population growth rate.

The division with the lowest total population in 2008 is Denison (Tas., 97 362). It also has one of the lowest growth rates. The five divisions with the lowest populations comprise all the divisions in Tasmania. The next two divisions with the lowest populations are the two divisions in the Northern Territory. Section 24 of the Australian Constitution guarantees that each of the original states is entitled to at least five members. Therefore, Tasmania has five electoral divisions even though it would only be entitled to three members under the representation entitlement formula. [1] This results in each Tasmanian division having a relatively small population. The calculation of representation entitlement that last occurred in February 2009 resulted in the Northern Territory having a quota of just over 1.5 resulting in an entitlement of two seats. As a result, the two divisions in the Northern Territory have relatively small populations. The division with the highest population in 2008 is Lalor (Vic., 182 700), followed by Reid (NSW, 181 568) and Holt (Vic., 179 344). 

The Australian population grew by an average 1.7 per cent between 2007 and 2008, a significant increase on the 1.5 per cent growth rate of the previous year. At the electorate level, Lalor (Vic., 6.3 per cent) was the fastest growing electoral division, followed by Fadden (Qld, 5.6 per cent) and Canning (WA, 5.0 per cent). The electoral division with the lowest growth rate was Canberra (ACT, -0.1 per cent) followed by North Sydney (NSW, -0.1 per cent), these are the only divisions that declined in size between 2007 and 2008.

Table 2: Population aged 0 to 4 years

Table 2a: Estimated resident population aged 0 to 4 years by electoral division, 2007 and 2008

Table 2b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 0 to 4 years age group, 2007 to 2008

Table 2a shows the ERP in the 0 to 4 years age group in 2007 and 2008 as well as this age group’s population change and growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetic order of electoral divisions. Table 2b shows the same data as in Table 2a with the data ranked by the 0 to 4 years age group population growth rate.

The Australian population aged 0 to 4 years increased by 2.8 per cent from 2007 to 2008, which was significantly higher than the 1.7 per cent growth rate of the total population. There were significant variations in the growth rate for individual electoral divisions with the highest growth rate occurring in Lalor (Vic., 12.2 per cent) followed by Brand (WA, 9.2 per cent) and Fadden (Qld, 8.8 per cent). Twenty five electoral divisions experienced a decline in the 0 to 4 years age group: the largest percentage decline occurred in Parkes (NSW, -2.2 per cent), followed by Fowler (NSW, -2.1 per cent) and Mitchell (NSW, -2.0 per cent).

Table 3: Population aged 5 to 14 years

Table 3a: Estimated resident population aged 5 to 14 years by electoral division, 2007 and 2008

Table 3b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 5 to 14 years age group, 2007 to 2008

Table 3a shows the ERP aged 5 to 14 years in 2007 and 2008 as well as this age group’s population change and growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetic order of electoral divisions. Table 3b shows the same data as in Table 3a with the data ranked by the 5 to 14 years age group population growth rate.

The Australian population aged 5 to 14 years increased by just 0.2 per cent between 2007 and 2008, which was significantly lower than the 1.7 per cent growth rate of the total population. There were significant variations in the growth rate for individual electoral divisions with the highest growth rate occurring in Lalor (Vic., 5.2 per cent) followed by Fadden (Qld, 4.8 per cent) and Pearce (WA, 3.3 per cent). There were 70 electoral divisions that experienced a decline in the 5 to 14 years age group. The largest percentage decline occurred in Canberra (ACT, -2.4 per cent), followed by Gilmore (NSW, -2.3 per cent) and Parkes (NSW, -2.2 per cent).

Table 4: Population aged 65 years and over

Table 4a: Estimated resident population aged 65 years and over by electoral division, 2007 and 2008

Table 4b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 65 years and over age group, 2007 to 2008

Table 4a shows the ERP aged 65 years and over in 2007 and 2008 as well as this age group’s population change and growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetic order of electoral divisions. Table 4b shows the same data as in Table 4a with the data ranked by growth rate of the 65 and over age group.

The Australian population aged 65 years and over increased by 2.5 per cent from 2007 to 2008, significantly higher than the growth rate of the total population but lower than the growth rate of the 0 to 4 years age group. At the electoral division level, the highest growth rate occurred in Solomon (NT, 7.4 per cent) followed by Lingiari (NT, 5.6 per cent) and Holt (Vic., 5.5 per cent). There are only four electoral divisions that experienced a decline in the aged population over this period, the largest percentage decline occurred in Wills (Vic., -0.9 per cent), followed by Lilley (Qld, -0.5 per cent), Adelaide (SA, -0.1 per cent) and Hindmarsh (SA, -0.0 per cent). 

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