Federal election 2013: How safe is your seat?

Posted 31/01/2013 by Joanne Simon-Davies

The “safeness” of an electoral division is determined by the size of the swing required for the division to be lost by the party (or independent) holding the division. A marginal division requires a swing of less than six per cent, a fairly safe division requires a swing of six to ten per cent and a safe division requires a swing of over ten per cent. This FlagPost details the most up-to-date information on those divisions that are marginal and fairly safe. Those seats that are considered safe have been excluded from this post.


The size of each electorate is determined by population. To ensure equal representation, the boundaries of these divisions have to be redrawn or redistributed periodically. Since the 2010 federal election, there have been redistributions of electoral boundaries in Victoria (2010) and South Australia (2011). These new boundaries will be used for the election on 14 September 2013. Based on these new redistribitions, the following tables show the size of the margin (in per cent) that would be needed to lose the seat.
 
Table showing fairly safe seats held by the ALP and LP/NP and Marginal seats held by the ALP and LP/NP
 
Table showing Fairly safe seat held by the Greens: Melbourne (Vic) 6.04 and a Marginal seat held by an Independent: Dension (Tas) 1.21
 
Source: AEC and the Parliamentary Library
 

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